Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Recap and Trading Plan for Thursday, 3/1

Wow, what a day. Got absolutely CREAMED on SODA strangle. Oh well, that's the risk of holding through earnings. This sort of trade can kill an account if not sized properly. I was in a little heavier than I would have liked, but I'll live to fight tomorrow, and that's the overall goal on losses. NOV got killed today, which was good for my puts, not so hot on my calls, the strategy here is to wait for a bottom (probably filling the gap), ditch the puts, and double down on the calls. VXX, meant to add on this one today, but got busy. oh well. if it pulls back again I'll add. LVS held up nicely buy on the dips here.

To me it feels like the market is rolling over, but it's too early to tell. it'll be a few days before its confirmed or rejected, just know that its a possibility. Being that we rallied on a weak dollar and strong GLD and today went the opposite... majorly... I think it's probable. A pullback is very needed and would be healthy for the market.

Trading Plan for Thursday
Bullish -

  • GOOG - made a doji today, could go either way tomorrow. keep an eye on it.
  • LNKD - cup and handle forming here, if it can break the handle go long and don't look back!
  • WYNN- broke this descending trend line here on good volume. watch for FTD and go long.
  • LVS     - held up well today, got over that 55.50 resistance and did well. This is one to buy on any pullback now with a $1-$2 stop
  • SINA   - held up but didn't do much as far as price appreciation goes.
  • BIDU   - this one is holding up well, next buy is the descending trend line (141)
  • UA       - new highs today, but another doji which means its getting tired and may pullback. if it holds over 87.25 i'd nibble some long
  • LTD      - pulled back today, if it holds over 20d nibble long
  • DDS      - broke out to new highs today, but made that inverted hammer. watch ftd tomorrow
  • DISCK  - new highs on strong volume
  • BEAM   - I like the looks of this one, keep it on watch
Bearish -
  • NFLX  - can't catch a break, I'm looking to short this one if the market rolls over
  • AMZN - same as NFLX
  • CF       - just like I said yesterday, made an ugly candlestick and didn't follow through. short-able imo
  • WFC   - rallied at open and crapped out. made an inverted hammer candlestick. short-able under 31.20 
  • GLD    - look at the double top, massive rejection, and massive volume. toast imo short-able
  • SLV     - same as GLD
  • MOS    - getting rejected as well, if it can hold the 20d may be a good bounce play
  • BIIB      - inverted hammer here, if it breaks this support at 115 very short-able
  • CVX     - bearish engulfing candle on heavy volume, short-able
  • QCOM - testing support and the 20d, if it loses 20d i'll buy puts
  • CRR      - can't hold over the 20d, until it does that its not ready
  • ADBE   - lost the breakout today, next support at 20d
  • GMCR  - lost the 20d, if it goes below 60 it'll make a good short
  • MCP     - broke the ascending trend line today, look for a double bottom. if loses lows (23) short
  • SODA   - bounced off this ascending trendline, if it holds, may be ok, otherwise short
  • DDS      - broke out to new highs today, but made that inverted hammer. watch ftd tomorrow










Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Recap and Trading Plan For Wednesday 2/29

Today was a very fine day for us here at The Chart Box, lots of winners, a few breakouts, etc...

Here are the alerts that went off, and how they held up today:
GOOG - broke back above the 50d and is sitting right at resistance. next buy point when clears 620
SINA   - broke above 65 on solid earnings, said buy over 65, now at 70.04. look for more tomorrow
LVS     - broke out of this nice base its been making, over 54, trading at 55.30 after hours. looks good.
SODA  - had a great follow through day hitting 49 after hours.
GS        - broke through resistance then failed, though closed just below. watch for a rally tomorrow
BRCM - broke over 37.00 which was our stop, look to re-short when it hits its head on resit again.
VMW  - tested over 101.00 but didn't hold. did close over 100 so it's still ok, but keep a tight leash if holding.
NTAP  - broke over a descending trend line only to close back below it. keep on watch.
PPO     - broke over 41.00, but light volume... tread lightly
CF        - broke out to new highs, but not a nice candlestick. FTD (follow through day is key)

VXX calls
LVS calls
SODA strangle (2:1 calls:puts)
NOV strangle (2:1 calls:puts)


Tomorrow is leap day, which is of course awesome! Being that I am a stock market addict, I am stoked to have an extra day in the year to trade, it's like free crack! (I don't do drugs nor do I condone drug use).

Also, the dow closed over 13k today, I'm not sure what to expect tomorrow. It seems too obvious that we should rally so keep a close I and stick to your stops. As I said yesterday the market needs to rest, but that doesn't mean it will.

On to the top stocks on my watch list tomorrow:
  • GOOG - 620.00 - This market leader could have been bought today on the break over the 50d, but     tomorrow over this point could be just as well
  • LVS     - 55.50 - That price would be a 3yr high, so that's the next buy point. If it gets over that, it's a quick jaunt to 59 imo
  • SINA   - just look for follow through on this one if it closes at or near todays highs, go long.
  • NFLX  - 116.54 - the last descending trend line on nflx is here. clears that on volume it's a buy
  • AMZN - 186.30 - cleared back above the 50d, tested the 20d, when it clears this trend line on volume it's a buy point
  • BIDU   - 141.00 - I think it'll take a couple days, but you never know, keep this one on watch to break out of this triangle.
  • PANL  - L/S - this one could go either way, it's down ah on earnings. Think it'll hold 200d, but we'll see
  •  CF      - 192.70 - this one broke out of that flag today to new highs, watch for FTD
  • WFC   - 31.47 - Not sure if I forgot to set an alert on this one, but broke over 31.22 on good volume watch for FTD and break of todays highs.
  • GLD    - 175.00 - Looks poised to break through this resistance. keep on watch!
  • UA      - 88.00 - broke through resistance and closed over. Doji candle on the daily so watch for FTD
  • MOS   - 60.38 - basing nicely, keeps this up it'll rocket through the 200d and resistance.
  • CME   - 297.25 - basing just below resistance
  • OPEN - L/S - Making a triangle, needs to make up its mind here. Volume is key, don't buy either break unless it's on volume.
  • CRM   - 146.50 - hit its head here after earnings, this is the next buy point.
  • INFA   - 50.75 - may not be ready yet, but make sure you have an alert set
  • SHLD  - 73.80 -  looks like it may be ready to break over 200d and through this descending trend line
  • LTD     - 47.15 - this looks primed for a along run, $46 stop should be a good risk/reward

Charts -











Monday, February 27, 2012

Trading recap and plan for Tuesday, 2/28

Today was an OK day. Took a new position on SODA, went with a strangle (calls and puts 2:1 ratio) since earnings are coming up and it dipped back below the 200d. But at the end of the day it held its own, so should see higher from here. Still holding NOV and VXX. As always, the weekly list is the go to, this is just my top few for tomorrow.

Overall I am seeing a lot of basing going on, a few breakouts, and a few failed breakouts. This tells me the market needs a rest. If it doesn't take a rest here a future pullback will be much deeper

Alerts that went off today:
CF     - Acted like it was going to break out, but failed to. Maybe tomorrow
CVX  - Poked through resistance but ultimately failed
UA     - Broke through resistance and held, watch for a good FTD (follow through day) and add
KFT   - Broke down through a trend line from September, closed back above, more downside IMO.
SODA- Gapped up over the 200d (buy point) then consolidated all day, healthy, but earnings Wednesday.

Stocks on watch for tomorrow:
PPO  - 41.00 - looks poised to break this, but if it fails could make for a good short
WFC - 31.25 - This was a short candidate, but bounced hard off of support at $30, may break resistance.
SINA -  L/S   - Looks like it may have put in a short term bottom, long above $65, Short below $60
CRR  - 96.10 - Made a bullish piercing line candlestick formation, go long over $96.10
NTAP- 43.85 - Building a base on light volume, go long when it breaks downtrend (43.85) on volume.
GS     - 117.75-Keep a close eye on this one, if it breaks this resistance on volume, go long.
VZ     -  L/S    - Still in this triangle, when it breaks either way it should be trade-able
INFA - 50.80 - Another one building a base below a resistance line.
ADBE- 33.55 - Just over resistance, so long as it holds its buy-able
LVS   - 54.00 - Another one basing just below resistance
BRCM- here   - I missed a good short opportunity on this today, resistance at 37 and 37.30
WDC  - 38.77 - Could be good for more downside, broke ascending trend line today if it breaks 20d, short

Only a few charts worth posting tonight:





Sunday, February 26, 2012

Trading Plan for 2/27-3/2

Coming out of the weekend I only have two holdings, NOV calls and VXX calls. I did a post on VXX/VIX friday, I am looking to buy more on any strength the market has left. I believe we are in need of a pullback, doesn't mean we will get one, but those are my thoghts. This week be cautious about long setups and make sure they are confirmed prior to buying. Enough of that and on to the watch list!

We've got a lot to watch! Pick a few longs and a few shorts that you think look best and watch those throughout the day. 

Symbol     Buy point                                Summary






























short 37.8






Short 90



Short 36.8
SHLD broke out over the 200d on strong volume, buy on pullbacks with 200d stop.
SODA Broke descending trend line on Thursday, up about $4 from that buy point, next buy is when it clears 200d (44.46) on volume.
BIDU is a good short setup if the market pulls back imo, when it breaks below 131.60 I’ll nibble a few puts. Upside, needs to get back over 141
WYNN Broke out strong on Tuesday, needs to get back over 120 to be a good long candidate.
APA, Keep this one on your watch list. Has a good solid uptrend going, next buy area is the descending trend line at $116.
PANL Looks poised to break this descending trend line, make sure it does so on strong volume and that’s your buy point.
ADBE This one broke through some heavy resistance on Friday with fair volume. Watch for a good FTD (Follow through day).
VMW finally busted through the $100 mark, if you bought, good. Otherwise wait until it clears 101, and then a test of old highs is in order.
CVX This one is poised to break out to new highs, watch for volume when it breaks this old resistance line
GOOG Consolidating in a nice tight channel, when it breaks 617.50 on solid volume, go long. If it breaks below 595 I may nibble a few short.
INFAReally wants to go, I think a pullback would be healthy, but this is the next buy point when cleared on heavy volume.
CME One could wait until 300 to be sure on this one, but it has a pretty strong base it’s been building the last two weeks.
GS has been consolidating nicely here for a few weeks, when it breaks this resistance point, long is the way imo.
LVS has been doing well. Working on a base here, may take a few more days, it may just go. 54.20 is old resistance point,breaks higher go long.
VZ is making a nice triangle, when it decides on a direction it should stick to it. Go long over 38.50, Go short under 37.84. Volume is key.
QCOM broke out of small, tight, base, and headed up nicely. 63 was our buy point so if you bought good, otherwise wait for 64.
KFT made a nice top, not a long candidate until it breaks out to new highs. Riding an ascending trend line, if breaks, could be a good short.
POT, This one can be a tough trade, but over this price and it should work.
MOS broke out on Tuesday, up about $2 since then. Looks like its building a nice tight base to rocket through the 200d.
GLD broke out on Wednesday, next buy area when clears 175 on volume

NTAP, nice consolidation/basing pattern going on, next buy area is when it clears this descending trend line on heavy volume.
CF Making a flag on the daily chart. When it closes over the upper band of the flag on good volume, go long. Short when closes below the lower.
CRR Ugly chart, good short candidate. Bearish engulfing candle on Friday, may nibble a few put options on this tomorrow.
CNX More than likely a short candidate, short when breaks below 33.75. Go long if it breaks 37.40 on STRONG volume.
PPO Possible double bottom, but if it takes out the low of 36.60 on volume, go short. Otherwise the long side is a break over 41.
BRCM Here with 37.00 stop.




Friday, February 24, 2012


For those who don't know what VIX is, let me explain. The VIX is the volatility index, meaning as long as stocks are holding up, the price of the VIX will drop. However, when stocks stop appreciating and pullback (even when its healthy) the VIX rises.
There's an old saying with VIX: "When VIX is high it's time to buy, when VIX is low its time to go (or let go). REMEMBER this saying. 

The VIX has been going down down down for the last few months and is near lows. Meanwhile the market is in need of a pullback in the next few weeks. So I picked up some VXX (which is an etf that trades w/vix) april 30 calls for 1.37. 

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Recap & Trading Plan For Friday 2/24

Edit: This is starting to look like a short term top for the market, make EVERYTHING get confirmation before going long. Also, be very cautious with anything that is breaking out while in overbought territory today.

It was a solid day today, a few good breakouts, some follow through, and some consolidation. Got a lot of options to choose from, and many charts. Here's what we are looking at tomorrow:

Also, let me know what you think, do you like the old charts better or the newer ones?

NOV - held the breakout, good consolidation day on lighter volume
IBM - 200 - finally broke this base its been building, if you bought today good, otherwise wait for 200
EBAY - Watch for FTD (follow through day) tomorrow. Broke out to highs on STRONG vol.
SODA - 42.70- Broke out today on OK vol, watch for an FTD. Could buy here, but best to wait for 42.70
CRM - Big breakout after earnings, let it digest tomorrow and we'll know where to go from there
PANL - 47.00 - Its got a ways to go, but keep on watch
ADBE - 33.10 - Broke through resistance today, vol was a little light REQUIRES strong FTD
QCOM - 64 - 64 is the next buy point, one could also buy on a pullback as long as it holds 63
NTAP - 43.50 - this one is basing just below a descending trend line, when it takes the next step, be ready
BBBY - 60.50 - this one is breaking out, but needs to get back over the 50d at 60.50
CME - 297 - basing here for a breakout
GS - 117.75 - building a nice handle to breakout above this resistance. get your trigger finger ready
INFA - 49.40 - next buy point when cleared on volume, heavy resistance ahead, keep close stops.
OPEN - 48.50 - this one is trending below an old descending line, if breaks, 50 is next resistance
VMW - 100 - keep an eye, this one wants to break 100.
MOS - 60.50 - this one broke out on Tuesday, next buy area when clears 60.50 on volume
GOOG - 616 - still basing in this tight channel, when breaks 616 on vol, buy time
POT - FAIL - may try again, but notice that the volume on the breakout was weak, always need FTD
WYNN - 118.13 - holding above descending trend line, needs to get back above 100d on vol



Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Trading Plan for Thursday 2/22

Pretty much the entire watch list from yesterday is still valid. So I'll re-list those and put in bold all of the new ones, along with charts of some of the new names.

NOV - Here - This was on our list and broke out Tuesday, anywhere in this area should be solid
HFC - 36.00 - broke out of a solid base on good vol. hitting resistance so wait for the break of $36
TS - 44.00 -  keep on your watch list, broke out today, earnings tomorrow, could blow through $44
FLR 60.00S - This looks short-able if it breaks ascending trend line (chart below)
GOOG – 617.61 – resistance and 200d break
WYNN – 120 – Gapped over trendline, hold as long as it holds over 100
GLD – 173.25 – breaking resistance, keep close stop
POT - 47.40 – breaking resistance and descending trend line
NTAP – 43.40 – FTD (follow through day)
KFT – 38.82 – big volume today, watch tomorrow for this break and volume
QCOM – 63.00 – watch for big vol to new highs
INFA – keep on watch – nice cup, watch for handle to form, break over 50
PEET – 67.20 – breaking descending trendline
WFC – 31.22L, 30.20S – forming a triangle, watch volume, could go either way.
WDC – 41.87 – this one is basing nicely keep on watch for new highs
VMW – 100.25L, 95S – another triangle…
– 53L, 51.30S – just an odd stock, could go either way, these are next entry points
CRM – 125.21S – Shortable if it breaks this trend line
OPEN – 44.75 – Shortable if it breaks this trend line


PANL Looking Good

this one looks really good, so here's another chart:
PANL looks ready to breakout of this downtrend.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Trading Plan for Wednesday

I'm trying to cut down on my day trades, they're getting me into some impatient habits, so there won't be any or there will be very few in my next few posts. Anyway here it is, lots of setups both long and short:

GOOG – 617.61 – resistance and 200d break
WYNN – 120 – Gapped over trendline, hold as long as it holds over 100
GLD – 173.25 – breaking resistance, keep close stop
POT - 47.40 – breaking resistance and descending trendline
NTAP – 43.40 – FTD (follow through day)
KFT – 38.82 – big volume today, watch tomorrow for this break and volume
QCOM – 63.00 – watch for big vol to new highs
INFA – keep on watch – nice cup, watch for handle to form, break over 50
PEET – 67.20 – breaking descending trendline
WFC – 31.22L, 30.20S – forming a triangle, watch volume, could go either way.
WDC – 41.87 – this one is basing nicely keep on watch for new highs
VMW – 100.25L, 95S – another triangle…
K – 53L, 51.30S – just an odd stock, could go either way, these are next entry points
CRM – 125.21S – Shortable if it breaks this trendine
OPEN – 44.75 – Shortable if it breaks this trendline

A few of the good looking charts: