Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Recap and Trading Plan for Thursday, 3/1

Wow, what a day. Got absolutely CREAMED on SODA strangle. Oh well, that's the risk of holding through earnings. This sort of trade can kill an account if not sized properly. I was in a little heavier than I would have liked, but I'll live to fight tomorrow, and that's the overall goal on losses. NOV got killed today, which was good for my puts, not so hot on my calls, the strategy here is to wait for a bottom (probably filling the gap), ditch the puts, and double down on the calls. VXX, meant to add on this one today, but got busy. oh well. if it pulls back again I'll add. LVS held up nicely buy on the dips here.

To me it feels like the market is rolling over, but it's too early to tell. it'll be a few days before its confirmed or rejected, just know that its a possibility. Being that we rallied on a weak dollar and strong GLD and today went the opposite... majorly... I think it's probable. A pullback is very needed and would be healthy for the market.

Trading Plan for Thursday
Bullish -

  • GOOG - made a doji today, could go either way tomorrow. keep an eye on it.
  • LNKD - cup and handle forming here, if it can break the handle go long and don't look back!
  • WYNN- broke this descending trend line here on good volume. watch for FTD and go long.
  • LVS     - held up well today, got over that 55.50 resistance and did well. This is one to buy on any pullback now with a $1-$2 stop
  • SINA   - held up but didn't do much as far as price appreciation goes.
  • BIDU   - this one is holding up well, next buy is the descending trend line (141)
  • UA       - new highs today, but another doji which means its getting tired and may pullback. if it holds over 87.25 i'd nibble some long
  • LTD      - pulled back today, if it holds over 20d nibble long
  • DDS      - broke out to new highs today, but made that inverted hammer. watch ftd tomorrow
  • DISCK  - new highs on strong volume
  • BEAM   - I like the looks of this one, keep it on watch
Bearish -
  • NFLX  - can't catch a break, I'm looking to short this one if the market rolls over
  • AMZN - same as NFLX
  • CF       - just like I said yesterday, made an ugly candlestick and didn't follow through. short-able imo
  • WFC   - rallied at open and crapped out. made an inverted hammer candlestick. short-able under 31.20 
  • GLD    - look at the double top, massive rejection, and massive volume. toast imo short-able
  • SLV     - same as GLD
  • MOS    - getting rejected as well, if it can hold the 20d may be a good bounce play
  • BIIB      - inverted hammer here, if it breaks this support at 115 very short-able
  • CVX     - bearish engulfing candle on heavy volume, short-able
  • QCOM - testing support and the 20d, if it loses 20d i'll buy puts
  • CRR      - can't hold over the 20d, until it does that its not ready
  • ADBE   - lost the breakout today, next support at 20d
  • GMCR  - lost the 20d, if it goes below 60 it'll make a good short
  • MCP     - broke the ascending trend line today, look for a double bottom. if loses lows (23) short
  • SODA   - bounced off this ascending trendline, if it holds, may be ok, otherwise short
  • DDS      - broke out to new highs today, but made that inverted hammer. watch ftd tomorrow










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